By Echo Huang, CFA, CFP®, CPA
You may have heard of the 4% rule for withdrawals during retirement as you approach your retirement. I would like to clarify this rule in this blog post and offer some thoughts on how to withdraw from your nest egg to make the money last for at least your lifetime.
What is the 4% rule?
The rule states that if you begin by withdrawing 4% of your nest egg's value during your first year of retirement, and then adjust subsequent withdrawals for inflation, you'll avoid running out of money for 30 years. If you retire with $2 million, the first year's withdrawal is $80,000 and if the inflation is 2% the second year, you adjust the second year's withdrawal by 2%, that is $81,600. It's simple to use and has been considered as the standard rule for withdrawals for many years. In my opinion, this rule is far from perfect for several reasons:
- This rule assumes that your investment mix is 60% stocks and 40% bonds. If you're conservative and allocate 75% to bonds, your portfolio may not grow enough to last your lifetime. If you are more aggressive and have 80% in stocks, your portfolio value may decline sharply during stock market crashes and won't have enough time to recover. Your investment mix should be designed based on all your factors: risk preference, loss capacity, time horizon and market conditions.
- The time frame of 30 years of retirement may not be long enough for some people and may be too long for others. If you retire early at age 50, your portfolio may have to last more than 30 years. If you retire late at age 70, you may limit your lifestyle spending too much by sticking to the 4% rule if you don't expect to live past age 85 based on your health conditions and family history. There is no do-over in retirement - running out of money even a year before you die is a failure and you simply cannot go back to work at age 89.
- Investment return expectations are outdated. When the rule was introduced in the early 1990s by William Bengen, then a financial planner in California, the historical data used at the time included periods that bonds had a high rate of return. Based on the current and projected interest environment, it is unreasonable to assume bond returns of 5% to 6% for next decade. The current federal funds rate is 2.25%. The federal funds rate's year-end estimate for year 2020 is 3.38%, based on the September 2018 FOMC meeting.